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Market Watch

WTI Oil rose to a three week high as government report showed stockpiles fell 592,000 barrels last week and US gasoline demand increased to six month highs. Gold rose to a one week high as mounting political unrest in Ukraine boosted demand for the metal as a safe haven asset.

US stocks fell from all-time highs sending benchmark indexes down from all-time highs as investors resumed selling in small cap and internet shares as company’s earnings were scrutinized. The S&P500 fell 0.50 percent after climbing above 1900 for the first time yesterday.

Yesterday’s trading session saw the Aussie Dollar make a short rally to test April’s highs coming from increased speculation the RBA will raise interest rates later this year. This fuelled more risk appetite buying and drove the market almost 50 points higher. However this was short lived as the overnight session managed to subdue this enthusiasm and we are now trading near yesterday’s open.

Overnight the main market mover was the US Dollar falling against a basket of major currencies for the first time in four days as Treasury yields declined on speculation the ECB will introduce easing measures to boost the EU economy by next month. The Euro slowed its recent selling as traders started to take profits following a solid week of selling waiting for further confirmation from tonight’s European Inflation numbers out of France and Germany.

The Greenback saw a better than expected PPI m/m number coming in at 0.6% compared to a forecast of 0.2%. This is a good indicator of consumer inflation, as this shows that when producers charge more for goods and services that the higher costs tend to be passed on the consumer. The market will be looking at Core CPI, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data tonight to see movements against the Aussie.

The jigsaw mats market is stable at the moment. There is sufficient supply even though demand is currently high. There continues to be demand from a broad range of users. May will see the arrival of yet another shipment of 40mm jigsaw mats for Ezymats. There is also talk of other thicknesses like 20mm and 300 and a high likelihood of vinyl mats hitting the market.

Foreign Exchange Outlook

The USD index has bounced off its lows, driven by the softer EUR.  The US ten‑year continues to trade near the bottom of its 2014 range.  US retail sales (Tuesday) and a speech by Fed Chair Yellen (Friday) are the US macro highlights.  While US developments may cause some intra‑day volatility near‑term movements in the USD will be driven by ongoing reaction in the EUR to building expectations of future ECB policy easing and geopolitical tensions in the Ukraine.  The USD should be supported near‑term, but over the medium‑term relatively lower US real interest rates and the US’ US$380 billion current account deficit should remain headwinds. 

The Australian Federal Government Budget (Tuesday) is unlikely to have any lasting impact on the AUD.  The budget should help underpin Australia’s AAA sovereign credit rating, at a time the transition in the domestic economy away from mining‑investment led growth is coming through.  Expectations are that the Chinese economy picked up momentum in April (activity data due Tuesday) which should be AUD positive.  It is expectedAUD/USD and selected AUD crosses (particularly AUD/EUR) to remain supported.  

In Australian rates the highlight of the week is the Australian Federal Budget on Tuesday.  A tight budget could lift expectations that the RBA is on hold for longer.  There shouldn’t be a lasting impact in the rates market.  Offshore developments such as tensions in the Ukraine remain a focus and should dominate moves in the long‑end.

Market Watch

The ASX closed the last session of the week down 0.29% at 5460.8 finishing the week almost unchanged with a small rise of 0.05%. The drop was attributed to lower than expected CPI data in China sending worries through the local markets. Further downside pressure came from speculation of what this week’s budget may hold for companies and consumer spending if the toughest budget in decades is delivered as expected.

Overseas we saw the European index’s closely follow APAC’s lead with the majors all closing down around the 0.30% mark while the US session managed to reverse this with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq finishing the week 0.20% and 0.50% respectively.

Gold had its second consecutive weekly fall closing at US$1288.70/oz as investors start to feel more confident in the equity and treasury market on the back of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony earlier in the week.

WTI Crude Oil also finished the day down 0.27% at US$99.99 per barrel as tensions in the Ukraine eased but we expect to see further volatility during this week’s sessions after further parts of Eastern Ukraine voted for independence from Kiev in a referendum slammed by the West.

The Australian Dollar finished the week higher against most majors. This was due to the better than expected employment figures, now boosting confidence around a sustained jobs market recovery. Also the Strong Chinese trade report help push the Aussie higher. The RBA also released its quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday suggesting that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Roko

Roko get ribbon at Sports Carnival

Roko received a ribbon at his sports carnival for good effort. He ran hard and fast, as he always does, and put in a great effort. The school carnival was put on by his school, St Maroons, in Dulwich Hill.

As well as continuing his gymnastics he is hoping to enrol in jiu-jitsu lessons and occasionally does some Wing Chun with his dad.

Market Watch

A jump in China’s iron ore demand saw a renewal of risk appetite in the financial markets. This helped ASX rise 0.8% to close at 5476, further boosted by a revenue beat and dividend upgrade from NAB. Meanwhile in Europe ECB President Draghi managed to steal the limelight from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Mario Draghi indicated a strong signal that the ECB possess a challenge with deflation in the Eurozone and it is prepared to act, commenting that the ECB will adopt some sort of easing measures in June. Testifying to the US Senate, Yellen largely reiterated her previous day’s messages that interest rates are unlikely begin to rise until the economic conditions in US improve further.

Overseas equity markets rallied taking a lead from the Asia on the back of better than expected Chinese Trade balance data. In Asia the Nikkei finished up 0.93% and Hang Seng was up 0.42%. At close all the stock markets in US were up except Nasdaq due to recent crash in Twitter shares.

In commodities space Ukraine tension somewhat subdued demand for gold. The yellow metal traded sideways at $1289/oz while Oil dropped 0.5% to $100.25. Copper got a boost thanks to the Chinese data and traded at $3.08/lb.

The AUD rose to a three week high as job numbers surprised the market adding 14,200 jobs in April, smashing the forecast of 8,800 jobs. The unemployment rate remained firm at 5.80%. Trade figures in China helped improve overall sentiment in the Chinese economy and this carried over to our market, pushing the Aussie Dollar higher. Chinese exports climbed 0.90% in April from last year and imports gained 0.80% leaving a trade surplus of $18.46 billion.

AUD up nearly a cent in late trade

The Australian dollar is up by over $0.0080 in later trade. The 1% rise comes after the RBA kept interest rates on hold. Whilst the Reserve Bank indicated stability in the AUD the general sentiment is that interest rates will rise by the end of the year.

The ABS also reported a continuing trade surplus for Australia. Whilst the surplus was down, record trade with China ensured it stayed in positive territory.

The higher dollar should lead to lower prices for imports including EVA jigsaw mats such as the ones that Ezymats imports.

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